The Volume and Cost of Quality Metric Reporting.

Importance: US hospitals report data on many health care quality metrics to government and independent health care rating organizations, but the annual cost to acute care hospitals of measuring and reporting quality metric data, independent of resources spent on quality interventions, is not well known. Objective: To evaluate externally reported inpatient quality metrics for adult patients and estimate the cost of data collection and reporting, independent of quality-improvement efforts. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective time-driven activity-based costing study at the Johns Hopkins Hospital (Baltimore, Maryland) with hospital personnel involved in quality metric reporting processes interviewed between January 1, 2019, and June 30, 2019, about quality reporting activities in the 2018 calendar year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included the number of metrics, annual person-hours per metric type, and annual personnel cost per metric type. Results: A total of 162 unique metrics were identified, of which 96 (59.3%) were claims-based, 107 (66.0%) were outcome metrics, and 101 (62.3%) were related to patient safety. Preparing and reporting data for these metrics required an estimated 108 478 person-hours, with an estimated personnel cost of $5 038 218.28 (2022 USD) plus an additional $602 730.66 in vendor fees. Claims-based (96 metrics; $37 553.58 per metric per year) and chart-abstracted (26 metrics; $33 871.30 per metric per year) metrics used the most resources per metric, while electronic metrics consumed far less (4 metrics; $1901.58 per metric per year). Conclusions and Relevance: Significant resources are expended exclusively for quality reporting, and some methods of quality assessment are far more expensive than others. Claims-based metrics were unexpectedly found to be the most resource intensive of all metric types. Policy makers should consider reducing the number of metrics and shifting to electronic metrics, when possible, to optimize resources spent in the overall pursuit of higher quality.

Hospital concentration and low-income populations: Evidence from New York State Medicaid.

While a large body of evidence has examined hospital concentration, its effects on health care for low-income populations are less explored. We use comprehensive discharge data from New York State to measure the effects of changes in market concentration on hospital-level inpatient Medicaid volumes. Holding fixed hospital factors constant, a one percent increase in HHI leads to a 0.6% (s.e. = 0.28%) decrease in the number of Medicaid admissions for the average hospital. The strongest effects are on admissions for birth (-1.3%, s.e. = 0.58%). These average hospital-level decreases largely reflect redistribution of Medicaid patients across hospitals, rather than overall reductions in hospitalizations for Medicaid patients. In particular, hospital concentration leads to a redistribution of admissions from non-profit hospitals to public hospitals. We find evidence that for births, physicians serving high shares of Medicaid beneficiaries in particular experience reduced admissions as concentration increased. These reductions may reflect preferences among these physicians or reduced admitting privileges by hospitals as a means to screen out Medicaid patients.

Validation of the days alive and out of hospital outcome measure after emergency laparotomy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Days alive and out of hospital (DAOH) is a composite, patient-centred outcome measure describing a patient's postoperative recovery, encompassing hospitalisation and mortality. DAOH is the number of days not in hospital over a defined postoperative period; patients who die have DAOH of zero. The Standardising Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine (StEP) group recommended DAOH as a perioperative outcome. However, DAOH has never been validated in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Here, we validate DAOH after emergency laparotomy and establish the optimal duration of observation. METHODS: Prospectively collected data of patients having emergency laparotomy in England (December 1, 2013-November 30, 2017) were linked to national hospital admission and mortality records for the year after surgery. We evaluated construct validity by assessing DAOH variation with known perioperative risk factors and predictive validity for 1 yr mortality using a multivariate Bayesian mixed-effects logistic regression. The optimal postoperative DAOH period (30 or 90 days) was judged on distributional and pragmatic properties. RESULTS: We analysed 78 921 records. The median 30-day DAOH (DAOH30) was 16 (inter-quartile range [IQR], 0-22) days and the median DAOH90 was 75 (46-82) days. DAOH was shorter in the presence of known perioperative risk factors. For patients surviving the first 30 postoperative days, shorter DAOH30 was associated with higher 1-yr mortality (odds ratio=0.94; 95% credible interval, 0.94-0.94). CONCLUSION: DAOH is a valid, patient-centred outcome after emergency laparotomy. We recommend its use in clinical trials, quality assurance, and quality improvement, measured at 30 days as mortality heavily skews DAOH measured at 90 days and beyond.

Association of Proximity to a Long-Term Acute Care Hospital With Hospital Tracheostomy Practices.

OBJECTIVES: Availability of long-term acute care hospitals has been associated with hospital discharge practices. It is unclear if long-term acute care hospital availability can influence patient care decisions. We sought to determine the association of long-term acute care hospital availability at different hospitals with the likelihood of tracheostomy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: California Patient Discharge Database, 2016-2018. PATIENTS: Adult patients receiving mechanical ventilation for respiratory failure. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Using the California Patient Discharge Database 2016-2018, we identified all mechanically ventilated patients and those who received tracheostomy. We determine the association between tracheostomy and the distance between each hospital and the nearest long-term acute care hospital and the number of long-term acute care hospital beds within 20 miles of each hospital. Among 281,502 hospitalizations where a patient received mechanical ventilation, 22,899 (8.1%) received a tracheostomy. Patients admitted to a hospital closer to a long-term acute care hospital compared with those furthest from a long-term acute care hospital had 38.9% (95% CI, 33.3-44.6%) higher odds of tracheostomy (closest hospitals 8.7% vs furthest hospitals 6.3%, adjusted odds ratio = 1.65; 95% CI, 1.40-1.95). Patients had a 32.4% (95% CI, 27.6-37.3%) higher risk of tracheostomy when admitted to a hospital with more long-term acute care hospital beds in the immediate vicinity (most long-term acute care hospital beds within 20 miles 8.9% vs fewest long-term acute care hospital beds 6.7%, adjusted odds ratio = 1.54; 95% CI, 1.31-1.80). Distance to the nearest long-term acute care hospital was inversely correlated with hospital risk-adjusted tracheostomy rates (ρ = -0.25; p < 0.0001). The number of long-term acute care hospital beds within 20 miles was positively correlated with hospital risk-adjusted tracheostomy rates (ρ = 0.22; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Proximity and availability of long-term acute care hospital beds were associated with patient odds of tracheostomy and hospital tracheostomy practices. These findings suggest a hospital effect on tracheostomy decision-making over and above patient case-mix. Future studies focusing on shared decision-making for tracheostomy are needed to ensure goal-concordant care for prolonged mechanical ventilation.

A national survey of hospital readiness during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to overwhelm health systems across the globe. We aimed to assess the readiness of hospitals in Nigeria to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak. METHOD: Between April and October 2020, hospital representatives completed a modified World Health Organisation (WHO) COVID-19 hospital readiness checklist consisting of 13 components and 124 indicators. Readiness scores were classified as adequate (score ≥80%), moderate (score 50-79.9%) and not ready (score <50%). RESULTS: Among 20 (17 tertiary and three secondary) hospitals from all six geopolitical zones of Nigeria, readiness score ranged from 28.2% to 88.7% (median 68.4%), and only three (15%) hospitals had adequate readiness. There was a median of 15 isolation beds, four ICU beds and four ventilators per hospital, but over 45% of hospitals established isolation facilities and procured ventilators after the onset of COVID-19. Of the 13 readiness components, the lowest readiness scores were reported for surge capacity (61.1%), human resources (59.1%), staff welfare (50%) and availability of critical items (47.7%). CONCLUSION: Most hospitals in Nigeria were not adequately prepared to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak. Current efforts to strengthen hospital preparedness should prioritize challenges related to surge capacity, critical care for COVID-19 patients, and staff welfare and protection.

Refractive error and its associated factors among pregnant women attending antenatal care unit at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Refractive error is one of the commonly encountered problems during pregnancy and being the cause of deleterious effects on health. Despite its impacts, there is no evidence on the magnitude and associated factors of refractive error among pregnant women in Ethiopia. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of refractive error and its associated factors among pregnant women attending antenatal care unit at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia, 2020. METHODS: An institution-based cross-sectional study was employed. An ocular examination was performed using Retinoscope and Snellen's illiterate "E" chart. The required data were collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire which comprised socio-demographic, clinical and pregnancy-related variables. EpiData 3.02 and STATA 14 were used for data entry and analysis respectively. Both bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were executed to identify factors associated with refractive error. Variables with a p-value ≤ 0.05 in the multivariable logistic regression analysis were declared as significantly associated factors with refractive error. RESULTS: A total of 401 pregnant women with a median age of 27 (IQR = 24-31) years participated in this study. The overall prevalence of refractive error among the study participants was 35.66% (95% CI: 30.95-40.37). Of the total study participants, ninety-two (22.90%) of them were myopic, forty-five (11.22%) were hyperopic and the rest were antimetropic. Increased maternal age (AOR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.16-1.48)), increased parity (AOR = 3.17, 95% CI: 1.92-5.25), increased gestational age (AOR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.08-1.22), and regular use of computers/ watching television (AOR = 6.19, 95% CI: 2.46-15.59) were significantly associated with refractive error. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of refractive error among pregnant women was high where myopia was the most common variety. Advanced maternal age, increased gestational age, increased parity and regular use of computer or watching television were significantly associated with refractive error among pregnant women. Therefore, apart from providing other maternal health services, routine screening and evaluation of pregnant women for refractive error during antenatal care visit is recommended to avoid its negative impacts.

Hospital bed capacity and usage across secondary healthcare providers in England during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a descriptive analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In this study, we describe the pattern of bed occupancy across England during the peak of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Descriptive survey. SETTING: All non-specialist secondary care providers in England from 27 March27to 5 June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Acute (non-specialist) trusts with a type 1 (ie, 24 hours/day, consultant-led) accident and emergency department (n=125), Nightingale (field) hospitals (n=7) and independent sector secondary care providers (n=195). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Two thresholds for 'safe occupancy' were used: 85% as per the Royal College of Emergency Medicine and 92% as per NHS Improvement. RESULTS: At peak availability, there were 2711 additional beds compatible with mechanical ventilation across England, reflecting a 53% increase in capacity, and occupancy never exceeded 62%. A consequence of the repurposing of beds meant that at the trough there were 8.7% (8508) fewer general and acute beds across England, but occupancy never exceeded 72%. The closest to full occupancy of general and acute bed (surge) capacity that any trust in England reached was 99.8% . For beds compatible with mechanical ventilation there were 326 trust-days (3.7%) spent above 85% of surge capacity and 154 trust-days (1.8%) spent above 92%. 23 trusts spent a cumulative 81 days at 100% saturation of their surge ventilator bed capacity (median number of days per trust=1, range: 1-17). However, only three sustainability and transformation partnerships (aggregates of geographically co-located trusts) reached 100% saturation of their mechanical ventilation beds. CONCLUSIONS: Throughout the first wave of the pandemic, an adequate supply of all bed types existed at a national level. However, due to an unequal distribution of bed utilisation, many trusts spent a significant period operating above 'safe-occupancy' thresholds despite substantial capacity in geographically co-located trusts, a key operational issue to address in preparing for future waves.

Containing SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals facing finite PPE, limited testing, and physical space variability: Navigating resource constrained enhanced traffic control bundling.

The COVID-19 outbreak has led to a focus by public health practitioners and scholars on ways to limit spread while facing unprecedented challenges and resource constraints. Recent COVID-19-specific enhanced Traffic Control Bundling (eTCB) recommendations provide a cogent framework for managing patient care pathways and reducing health care worker (HCW) and patient exposure to SARS-CoV-2. eTCB has been applied broadly and has proven to be effective in limiting fomite and droplet transmissions in hospitals and between hospitals and the surrounding community. At the same time, resource constrained conditions involving limited personal protective equipment (PPE), low testing availability, and variability in physical space can require modifications in the way hospitals implement eTCB. While eTCB has come to be viewed as a standard of practice, COVID-19 related resource constraints often require hospital implementation teams to customize eTCB solutions. We provide and describe a cross-functional, collaborative on-the-ground adaptive application of eTCB initially piloted at two hospitals and subsequently reproduced at 16 additional hospitals and health systems in the US to date. By effectively facilitating eTCB deployment, hospital leaders and practitioners can establish clearer 'zones of risk' and related protective practices that prevent transmission to HCWs and patients. We outline key insights and recommendations gained from recent implementation under the aforementioned constraints and a cross-functional team process that can be utilized by hospitals to most effectively adapt eTCB under resource constraints.

Drugs supply and pharmaceutical care management practices at a designated hospital during the COVID-19 epidemic.

The coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus that was first detected at the end of December 2019. The epidemic has affected various regions of China in different degrees. As the situations evolve, the COVID-19 had been confirmed in many countries, and made a assessment that it can be characterized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. Drugs are the main treatment of COVID-19 patients. Pharmaceutical service offers drug safety ensurance for COVID-19 patients. According to COVID-19 prevention and control policy and requirements, combined with series of diagnosis and treatment plans, pharmacists in the first provincial-level COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment unit in Jilin Province in Northeast China have established the management practices of drug supply and pharmaceutical care from four aspects: personnel, drugs supply management, off-label drug use management and pharmaceutical care. During the outbreak, the pharmaceutical department of THJU completed its assigned workload to ensure drug supply. So far, no nosocomial infections and medication errors have occurred, which has stabilized the mood of the staff and boosted the pharmacists' confidence in fighting the epidemic. For the treatment of COVID-19, pharmacists conducted adverse reaction monitoring and participated in the multidisciplinary consultation of COVID-19. Up to now, the COVID-19 patients admitted to THJU have not shown any new serious adverse reactions and been cured finally. The hospital pharmacy department timely adjusted the work mode, and the formed management practices is a powerful guarantee for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. This paper summarized the details and practices of drug supply and pharmaceutical services management to provide experience for the people who involving in COVID-19 prevention and contain in other abroad epidemic areas.

Medication discrepancies in a hospital in Southern Brazil: the importance of medication reconciliation for patient safety

Medication discrepancies are of great concern in hospitals because they pose risks to patients and increase health care costs. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of inconsistent medication prescriptions to adult patients admitted to a hospital in southern Santa Catarina, Brazil. This was a patient safety study on patients recruited between November 2015 and June 2016. The participants were interviewed and had their medical records reviewed. Discrepant medications were considered those that did not match between the list of medicines taken at home and the prescribed drugs for treatment in a hospital setting. Of the 394 patients included, 98.5% took continuous-use medications at home, with an average of 5.5 medications per patient. Discrepancies totaled 80.2%, The independent variables associated with the discrepancies were systemic arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, vascular disease, number of medications taken at home, and poor documentation of the medications in the medical record. Findings from this study allowed us to conclude there was a high rate of prescription medication misuse. Medication reconciliation is crucial in reducing these errors. Pharmacists can help reduce these medication-related errors and the associated risks and complications.

Overview of the italian experience in surgical management of bladder cancer during first month of COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: Overview of bladder cancer (BC) management in Italy during the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020) with head to head comparison of the data from March 2019, considered "usual activity" period. The aim is to analyze performance of different Italian Centers in North, Center and South, with a special eye for Lombardy (the Italian epicenter). PATIENTS AND METHODS: During April 2020, a survey containing 14 multiple-choice questions focused on general staffing and surgical activity related to BC during the months of March 2019 and March 2020 was sent to 32 Italian Centers. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics (v26) software. A Medline search was performed, in order to attempt a comparative analysis with published papers. RESULTS: 28 Centers answered, for a response rate of 87.5%. Most of the urology staff in the Lombardy region were employed in COVID wards (p = 0.003), with a statistically significant reduction in the number of radical cystectomies (RC) performed during that time (p = 0.036). The total amount of RC across Italy remained the same between 2019 and 2020, however there was an increase in the number of surgeries performed in the Southern region. This was most likely due to travel restrictions limiting travel the North. The number of Trans-Urethral Resection of Bladder Tumors (TURBT) (p = 0.046) was higher in Academic Centers (AC) in 2020 (p = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: The data of our survey, although limited, represents a snap shot of the management of BC during the first month of the COVD-19 pandemic, which posed a major challenge for cancer centers seeking to provide care during an extremely dynamic clinical and political situation which requires maximum flexibility to be appropriately managed.

Evaluation of underidentification of potential organ donors in German hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Since 2010, the number of organ donations in Germany has decreased by one third, mostly due to undetected organ donors. It is unclear, how the undetected potential donor pool is distributed among the different German hospital categories (A = university hospital, B = hospitals with neurosurgery, C = hospitals without neurosurgery) and region types. METHODS: We performed a nationwide secondary data analysis of all German inpatient cases of the year 2016 (n = 20,063,689). All fatalities were regarded as potential organ donors, in which primary or secondary brain damage was encoded and organ donation was not excluded by a contraindication or a lack of ventilation therapy. RESULTS: In 2016, 28,087 potential organ donors were identified. Thereof 21% were found in category A, 28% in category B and 42% in category C hospitals. The contact rate (= organ donation related contacts/ potential organ donors) and realization rate (= realized organ donations/ potential organ donors) of category A, B and C hospitals was 10.6% and 4.6%, 10.9% and 4.8% and 6.0% and 1.7%, respectively. 58.2% of the donor potential of category C hospitals was found in the largest quartile of category C hospitals. 51% (n = 14,436) of the potential organ donors were treated in hospitals in agglomeration areas, 28% (n = 7,909) in urban areas and 21% (n = 5,742) in rural areas. The contact- and realization rate did not significantly differ between these areas. CONCLUSIONS: The largest proportion of potential organ donors and the lowest realization rate are found in category C hospitals. Reporting and donation practice do not differ between urban and rural regions.

A importância dos registros de enfermagem no contexto avaliativo da auditoria / The importance of nursing records within the audit assessment context

Objetivo: Analisar a importância dos registros de enfermagem no contexto avaliativo da auditoria. Método: Trata-se de uma revisão integrativa da literatura realizada nas bases de dados LILACS, MEDLINE e BDENF, por meio dos descritores Auditoria de Enfermagem; Auditoria Clínica; Registros de Enfermagem; Anotações de Enfermagem e Enfermagem. A busca foi realizada de 12 de janeiro a 26 de fevereiro de 2018 e selecionados 17 artigos que compõem o estudo. Resultados: a importância dos registros de enfermagem no contexto avaliativo da auditoria se dá pela investigação da qualidade do cuidado prestado por meio das evidências proporcionadas nos registro/anotações de enfermagem no portuário do paciente, evitar prejuízos na continuação do cuidado, intensificar sugestões de implantações de valores educacionais por meio da educação continuada e permanente, resgatar os valores econômicos perdidos por glosas em contas hospitalares e promover a melhoria da qualidade da assistência. Conclusão: foi possível verificar que, mesmo sendo uma prática que deva ser realizada com qualidade, o processo de auditora ainda encontra muita fragilidade nas informações encontradas nos diversos registros do profissional de enfermagem, o que acarreta grandes prejuízos.

Objective: To analyze the importance of nursing records in the evaluative context of the audit. Method: This is an integrative literature review performed in the LILACS, MEDLINE and BDENF databases using the descriptors Nursing Audit; Clinical audit; Nursing records; Nursing and Nursing Notes. The search was performed from January 12 to February 26, 2018, selecting a total of 17 articles. Results: the importance of nursing records in the evaluative context of the audit is due to the investigation of the quality of care provided through the evidence provided in the nursing records/annotations in the patient's chart, avoiding losses in the continuation of care, intensifying suggestions for implantation of nursing care, educational values through continuing and continuing education, recovering the economic values lost by disallowances in hospital bills and promoting the improvement of the quality of care. Conclusion: it was possible to verify that, even though it is a practice that should be performed with quality, the audit process still finds a lot of fragility in the information found in the various records of the nursing professional, which causes great losses.

Purchase and use of antimicrobials in the hospital sector of Vietnam, a lower middle-income country with an emerging pharmaceuticals market.

INTRODUCTION: Antimicrobial use is associated with emergence of antimicrobial resistance. We report hospital antimicrobial procurement, as a surrogate for consumption in humans, expenditure and prices in public hospitals in Vietnam, a lower middle-income country with a high burden of drug resistant infections. METHOD: Data on antimicrobial procurement were obtained from tender-winning bids from provincial health authorities and public hospitals with detailed bids representing 28.7% (1.68 / 5.85 billion US $) of total hospital medication spend in Vietnam. Antimicrobials were classified using the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) Index and the 2019 WHO Access, Watch, Reserve (AWaRe) groups. Volume was measured in number of Defined Daily Doses (DDD). Antimicrobial prices were presented per DDD. RESULTS: Expenditure on systemic antibacterials and antifungals accounted for 28.6% (US $482.6 million/US $1.68 billion) of the total drug bids. 83% of antibacterials (572,698,014 DDDs) by volume (accounting for 45.5% of the antibacterials spend) were domestically supplied. Overall, the most procured antibacterials by DDD were second generation cephalosporins, combinations of penicillins and beta-lactamase inhibitors, and penicillins with extended spectrum. For parenteral antibacterials this was third generation cephalosporins. The average price for antibacterials was US $15.6, US $0.86, US $0.4 and US $11.7 per DDD for Reserve, Watch, Access and non-recommended/unclassified group antibacterials, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Antimicrobials accounted for a substantial proportion of the funds spent for medication in public hospitals in Vietnam. The pattern of antibacterial consumption was similar to other countries. The high prices of Reserve group and non-recommended/unclassified antibacterials suggests a need for a combination of national pricing and antimicrobial stewardship policies to ensure appropriate accessibility.

An analysis of emergency care delays experienced by traumatic brain injury patients presenting to a regional referral hospital in a low-income country.

BACKGROUND: Trauma is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), trauma patients have a higher risk of experiencing delays to care due to limited hospital resources and difficulties in reaching a health facility. Reducing delays to care is an effective method for improving trauma outcomes. However, few studies have investigated the variety of care delays experienced by trauma patients in LMICs. The objective of this study was to describe the prevalence of pre- and in-hospital delays to care, and their association with poor outcomes among trauma patients in a low-income setting. METHODS: We used a prospective traumatic brain injury (TBI) registry from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center in Moshi, Tanzania to model nine unique delays to care. Multiple regression was used to identify delays significantly associated with poor in-hospital outcomes. RESULTS: Our analysis included 3209 TBI patients. The most common delay from injury occurrence to hospital arrival was 1.1 to 4.0 hours (31.9%). Most patients were evaluated by a physician within 15.0 minutes of arrival (69.2%). Nearly all severely injured patients needed and did not receive a brain computed tomography scan (95.0%). A majority of severely injured patients needed and did not receive oxygen (80.8%). Predictors of a poor outcome included delays to lab tests, fluids, oxygen, and non-TBI surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Time to care data is informative, easy to collect, and available in any setting. Our time to care data revealed significant constraints to non-personnel related hospital resources. Severely injured patients with the greatest need for care lacked access to medical imaging, oxygen, and surgery. Insights from our study and future studies will help optimize resource allocation in low-income hospitals thereby reducing delays to care and improving trauma outcomes in LMICs.

Estimated surge in hospital and intensive care admission because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In pandemics, local hospitals need to anticipate a surge in health care needs. We examined the modelled surge because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that was used to inform the early hospital-level response against cases as they transpired. METHODS: To estimate hospital-level surge in March and April 2020, we simulated a range of scenarios of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, using the best available data at the time. We applied outputs to hospital-specific data to estimate surge over 6 weeks at 2 hospitals (St. Michael's Hospital and St. Joseph's Health Centre). We examined multiple scenarios, wherein the default (R0 = 2.4) resembled the early trajectory (to Mar. 25, 2020), and compared the default model projections with observed COVID-19 admissions in each hospital from Mar. 25 to May 6, 2020. RESULTS: For the hospitals to remain below non-ICU bed capacity, the default pessimistic scenario required a reduction in non-COVID-19 inpatient care by 38% and 28%, respectively, with St. Michael's Hospital requiring 40 new ICU beds and St. Joseph's Health Centre reducing its ICU beds for non-COVID-19 care by 6%. The absolute difference between default-projected and observed census of inpatients with COVID-19 at each hospital was less than 20 from Mar. 25 to Apr. 11; projected and observed cases diverged widely thereafter. Uncertainty in local epidemiological features was more influential than uncertainty in clinical severity. INTERPRETATION: Scenario-based analyses were reliable in estimating short-term cases, but would require frequent re-analyses. Distribution of the city's surge was expected to vary across hospitals, and community-level strategies were key to mitigating each hospital's surge.